Insights
Insights into the current political and economic challenges facing businesses today
Is UK inflation past its worst?
Martin Beck, Chief Economist | Economic Consulting and Analysis
On the face of it, CPI inflation at 3.8% in September suggests the UK’s inflation problem persists. But the latest reading came in below consensus and Bank of England expectations, while some measures of underlying price pressures eased. A combination of base effects, lower oil and petrol prices and the drag from tighter fiscal policy mean inflation should now start to head down.
Little relief for the Chancellor as borrowing remains stubbornly high
Martin Beck, Chief Economist | Economic Consulting and Analysis
September’s government borrowing figures were in line with the OBR’s forecast and the deficit in the year to date was revised down, but the good news may stop there. The government’s headroom against its fiscal rules has almost certainly disappeared, leaving tough tax and spending choices ahead in November’s Budget.
Week in Review: Signs of stability amid fiscal clouds
Martin Beck, Chief Economist | Economic Consulting and Analysis
This week saw signs of stabilisation emerging as jobs and GDP edged up and pay growth slowed, pointing to an easing in inflationary pressures. But with tax rises looming in the budget, confidence remains fragile and the sustainability of the expansion uncertain.
UK economy returns to growth, but challenges remain
Martin Beck, Chief Economist | Economic Consulting and Analysis
WPI’s Chief Economist, Martin Beck, discusses August's modest 0.1% rise in GDP, an improvement on the previous month, but not a breakthrough. Restrictive interest rates, cost of living pressures, and looming tax rises continue to weigh on confidence but strong household finances and a stabilising labour market offer resilience.