Plaid Cymru win Caerphilly, leaving questions for Labour

Solomon Fitzpatrick, Senior Consultant | Public Affairs and Corporate Communications

The by-election result in Caerphilly gives us a flavour of what to expect come next May.

An increased turnout on 2021, 50% from 41% and the highest ever for the seat, indicates voters who are calling for change of some kind while a Plaid Cymru victory showcases it may not be all plain sailing for Reform UK.

Time will tell whether this by-election is a pre-cursor to tactical voting on a mass scale, raising concerns for Farage and Reform UK, however the new voting system coming in May will have an impact at least in Wales.

What can’t be in doubt is a worrying picture for the Labour government as well as the Conservatives. With their combined vote falling from 63% to 13%, this is further evidence that voters are turning away from what opposition parties are keen to paint as the ‘uni-party’. For Labour, having held the corresponding Parliamentary seat for over 100 years, the result will place additional pressure on what is already shaping up to be a difficult November Budget.

The result will lead some to question recent MRP polls indicating a Reform clean sweep at the next general election however, as ever with one-off by-elections, the picture may look different come May when voters know they will be voting for who runs their devolved nations and local authorities.

What is certain is that engaging with devolved nations will see a major overhaul and it is important to be engaging with all parties now. WPI Strategy are on hand to support businesses with analysis and support throughout.